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Mesoscale Discussion 1563
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171920Z - 172045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
   FAR SWRN ND IN BOWMAN COUNTY...AS WELL AS IN NRN ND IN RENVILLE
   COUNTY NORTH OF MINOT. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD
   FRONT WITH ASCENT BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THE TWO
   AREAS OF STORMS...WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY
   WEAK...BUT SOME INCREASE IN CU HAS BEEN NOTED FROM NEAR DIK TO SW OF
   MIB...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY 20-21Z. 

   CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOTED PER
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS. WIND PROFILES ARE RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT
   MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND. 

   THE SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY TOO ISOLATED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT
   AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FILLS IN BETWEEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 20-21Z.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 08/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46160382 47500266 49010186 49000092 48990044 48590020
               48150039 47730055 46750087 45990140 46050254 46060357
               46160382 

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Page last modified: August 17, 2014
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