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Mesoscale Discussion 1563
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MAINE...VT...NH...MA...RI...AND CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281822Z - 282015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF MARGINAL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINING TOO ISOLATED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MAINE TO THE S OF A WEAK FRONT OVER NRN
   MAINE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FURTHER TO
   THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...DIURNAL HEATING ALONG
   WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR RE-DESTABILIZATION
   OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
   GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 60S. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.0 DEG
   C/KM...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA PER LATEST RAP
   MESOANALYSIS.

   UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
   LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
   LIMIT MORE ROBUST/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS...SUCH AS ONE CURRENTLY MOVING SWD FROM FRANKLIN INTO
   ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY MAINE AS OF 1820Z...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS
   GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR. STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON
   THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT IS PRESENT ACROSS NH...VT...AND MUCH OF
   MA/RI/CT. BUT...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW LESS TOWERING
   CU ACROSS THESE STATES COMPARED TO MUCH OF MAINE...WHICH CASTS DOUBT
   ON EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG
   SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS AREA OF STRONGER
   BULK SHEAR...THEN THEY MAY POSE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND. REGARDLESS...THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND A MORE
   OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION LOOK TO KEEP THE
   SEVERE THREAT TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   44937282 45057165 45337128 45417073 45747022 46176970
               46346895 46356768 45766766 45506793 44986830 44506892
               43916991 43597038 43157073 42287098 41977089 41887152
               41867254 42207274 43487291 44937282 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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