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Mesoscale Discussion 1564
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191920Z - 192115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
   DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
   ENCOURAGED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 1-2
   HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELD
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE FRONT ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS
   CNTRL NC. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
   IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER 19Z RAP MESOANALYSIS AND SFC
   OBSERVATIONS...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG.
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MODESTLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE MCD REGION...AS
   EVIDENCED BY WNWLY FLOW AROUND 25-30 KT FROM RECENT KRAX VWP
   ESTIMATES AND OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND MHX. THIS
   STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION EVEN WITH POOR MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREAT. RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
   THE 12Z NSSL WRF AND 17Z PARALLEL HRRR...SUGGEST SOME CLUSTERING OF
   CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD
   MODESTLY INCREASE THE ISOLATED WIND THREAT ACROSS ERN NC BEFORE
   DIURNAL COOLING LESSENS THE SEVERE RISK.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35267969 35797909 36017834 36187727 35967609 35277515
               34497639 33937752 33887855 34717950 35267969 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2016
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