Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1565
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1565 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...N-CTRL/NWRN OK...SERN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 192017Z - 192145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM S-CNTRL
   KS INTO PARTS OF NWRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED
   TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR WICHITA SWD INTO N-CNTRL OK...WITHIN AN
   AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY /E.G. 2000-2500 J/KG/ AND
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A LEE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE
   POSITIONED FARTHER W...WHERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NWRN OK INTO
   THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RAP-BASED
   MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STEEP /6-6.5 C PER KM/...AND EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL
   /20-25 KT/...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
   HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG TO
   LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WITH
   ANY LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS THAT CAN EVOLVE.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37629660 36399717 34999897 34790128 34890184 35180180
               35320115 35590007 35989935 36819898 37829894 38089874
               38129787 38039725 37629660 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 19, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities