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Mesoscale Discussion 1565
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
   INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 282150Z - 290015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS
   THE AREA.

   DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING/STALLING SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
   NEAR BEATRICE NEB TO E OF DODGE CITY KS TO AMARILLO TX...AND
   INSTABILITY IS BECOMING STRONG ALONG AND ON THE WARM SIDE /E AND S
   SIDE/ OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
   BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY...BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS
   FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PBL
   HAS DEEPENED WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING REACHED 95-103F ON THE WARM SIDE
   OF THE BOUNDARY.

   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME INTENSE OWING TO
   THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
   WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY
   ALSO SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE STALLING
   NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FRONTAL-ZONE RESIDENCE TIME
   FOR TSTMS TO INTERACT WITH RELATED BOUNDARY-ENHANCED VERTICAL
   VORTICITY TO BE STRETCHED FOR A NON-ZERO -- ALBEIT LOW -- TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.

   HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 25 KT ARE GENERALLY
   DISPLACED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
   BE VERY LIMITED IN THE HIGH-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...TSTMS MAY
   STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE OVERALL
   COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
   REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED -- PARTICULARLY IN
   NERN KS TO FAR NWRN MO THAT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL
   END OF A GLANCING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCALLY ENHANCING
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
   RELATED TO THIS FEATURE MAY ENCOURAGE AN EVOLUTION TO MORE ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   39799726 39949478 39619450 39349500 38809632 38139734
               36130013 35120209 35280259 35660240 38089959 39799726 

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Page last modified: July 29, 2015
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