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Mesoscale Discussion 1566
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
   AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

   VALID 290104Z - 290300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
   THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
   SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
   EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
   COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
   AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
   AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
   INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
   WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
   UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
   NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
   CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
   AND LARGE HAIL. 

   TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
   KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
   MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
   INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
   NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

   ..DIAL.. 07/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
               40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709 

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Page last modified: July 29, 2015
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