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Mesoscale Discussion 1567
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0711 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180011Z - 180115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   TSTM CLUSTERS PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CNTRL AZ.
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SHOW A SEMI-CONTINUOUS CLUSTER OF
   TSTMS PROPAGATING SWWD OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM TOWARDS THE LOWER
   DESERTS OF S-CNTRL AZ. AMBIENT MIDLEVEL WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH WEAK
   GENERALLY WLY SFC WINDS...COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW/TSTM INTERACTIONS
   AND MERGERS...APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR MAINTAINING MULTICELLULAR
   CONVECTION. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVELY
   MORE MOIST MIDLEVELS IS SUPPORTING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
   LOWER DESERTS...WITH MLCAPE OBSERVED NEAR 900 J/KG PER TUS 18/00Z
   SOUNDING. CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN
   PLACE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS SUGGEST A HIGHER PROBABILITY TSTMS WILL
   REACH ERN PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO AREA AFTER 01Z...GIVEN CURRENT
   ESTIMATED STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
   TO LOCALIZED SVR WIND GUSTS.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31790922 32011053 32361118 32641153 33231194 33621219
               33971214 34151189 34181154 34021119 33601072 32971022
               32710962 32580926 32170908 31790922 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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