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Mesoscale Discussion 1568
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB...N-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

   VALID 180157Z - 180300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
   THE SSE-MOVING CLUSTER PUSHING S OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
   SHOULD PERSIST BEYOND 03Z SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION WITH A RISK FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...NE PORTION OF AN MCS OVER S-CNTRL NEB HAS RAPIDLY
   WEAKENED NEAR THE GID/LBF/OAX CWA BORDER AREA. THESE APPEARS TO BE A
   RESULT OF INCREASING MLCIN AS SURFACE COOLING HAS ENSUED BENEATH
   WARM NOSES BETWEEN 800-700 MB AS SAMPLED BY DOWNSTREAM 00Z RAOBS AT
   OAX/TOP. THE THRUST OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
   INCREASINGLY CONFINED IN AREAL EXTENT AND SHOULD PUSH S/SE INTO
   N-CNTRL KS DURING THE NEXT HOUR. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE LINE
   HAVE LARGELY RANGED FROM 35-45 KT ACROSS SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS
   STATIONS...EXCEPT FOR A RECENT WIND GUST TO 72 KT AT KHSI.
   STILL...LONG-TERM TREND SHOULD BE COLLAPSING MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY
   CORES...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ISOLATED.

   ..GRAMS.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   40359974 40329914 40599849 40839813 40669780 40249719
               39569711 39279733 38959792 38929851 39019908 39319901
               39619889 39879894 40149932 40359974 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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