Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1568
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1568 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MO...WRN IL.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290636Z - 290900Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS WITH INTERMITTENT/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
   OFFER LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APCHG SVR LIMITS. 
   GIVEN LOW COVERAGE AND MRGL ORGANIZATION/MAGNITUDE OF RISK...WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE AND STRONGEST SEGMENT OF STG TSTM BAND
   EXTENDED AT 06Z FROM WRN SCHUYLER COUNTY MO SWWD TO NEAR CDJ.  FROM
   THAT AREA WWD...CONVECTION WAS INCREASINGLY FAR BEHIND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROCEEDING SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SHOULD REMAIN
   DECIDEDLY SUB-SVR.  NERN MO SEGMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE CLOSEST
   ACCESS TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE
   INCREASING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS FOR
   PROJECTED PATH ESEWD INTO WRN IL HAVE 1.6-2.1-INCH PW AND 16-19 G/KG
   MEAN MIXING RATIOS...AND 00Z 850-MB CHART SHOWED 16.5-17.5 DEG C DEW
   POINTS UPSTREAM.  THIS SUPPORTS MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND MLCAPE
   REMAINING IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  EFFECTIVE
   INFLOW PARCELS APPEAR TO REMAIN SFC-BASED...ALBEIT INCLUDING
   SHALLOW/COOL NEAR-SFC LAYER AND SBCINH INCREASING WITH TIME.  

   SFC DEW POINT AT IRK PLUMMETED 11 DEG F TO 65 IN AN HOUR FROM
   04Z-05Z BEHIND WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION FARTHER
   NE...AND ROSE ONLY A DEGREE BY 06Z.  HOWEVER...THAT OBSERVATION IS
   SUSPECT GIVEN HIGHER/LITTLE-CHANGED POST-OUTFLOW DEW POINTS TO ITS
   NE...AND LACK OF APPARENT HEATBURST/WARMING PROCESSES THAT ALSO
   WOULD PERFORM DRYING.  THIS OB MAY RENDER LOW BIAS TO MOISTURE/CAPE
   FIELDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES....BUT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND CINH SHOULD
   DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME AMIDST NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING. 
   NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION BESIDES
   CINH INCLUDE
   1. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DECREASING EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITH
   EWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE...AND 
   2. RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED NATURE OF 850-MB FLOW -- I.E. ONLY 15-25
   KT BASED ON REGIONAL VWP AND WLY...WHICH IS ALONG STORM-MOTION
   VECTOR AND WHICH YIELDS LESS THAN 10 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. 

   LOCAL BOWING SEGMENTS MAY OFFER WEAKLY REAR-INFLOW-ASSISTED/
   WATER-LOADED GUSTS APCHG SVR LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT CURRENTLY
   APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR ANOTHER WW.  WW 459 EXPIRED AT 5Z ACROSS SRN
   IA AND NRN MO...AND WAS NOT EXTENDED DUE TO MRGL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
   SVR RISK.

   ..EDWARDS/BROYLES.. 07/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39699346 39919300 40209280 40379277 40299152 40189044
               39429031 38909115 39519307 39699346 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 29, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities