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Mesoscale Discussion 1569
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI...FAR ERN IND...AND WRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291828Z - 292100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD
   FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
   OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES NEWD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TEMPERATURES ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
   90...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.0 DEG C/KM AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER 12Z
   DTX SOUNDING SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED BY RAP MESOANALYSIS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA SUPPORTED MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING OF THE LOW LEVELS. SOME
   STRONGER FLOW AROUND 30-35 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM IS MOVING OVER THE NRN
   PORTIONS OF THIS REGION PER LATEST VWP FROM KDTX...WHICH MAY BE
   PROMOTED TO THE SFC THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN THE LINEAR
   NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MARGINAL BULK SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORM MODE.
   THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS OVER N-CNTRL/NERN OH.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   43098405 43698379 44078318 44088279 43838254 43058239
               42548258 42198297 41858289 41668253 40858268 40088311
               39428372 39448445 39528492 40038489 41078490 42078442
               43098405 

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Page last modified: July 29, 2015
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