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Mesoscale Discussion 1569
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN KS...FAR SE NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464...

   VALID 180334Z - 180430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE
    OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCAL
   AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSIONS COULD BE WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...LONGER-LIVED MCS OVER NEB RECENTLY MERGED WITH A
   SMALLER CLUSTER ACROSS N-CNTRL KS...YIELDING A LARGELY
   N/S-ORIENTATION TO THE QLCS. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   CONTINUE TO BE MEASURED BY MOST OBSERVING SITES /REF RECENT GUSTS OF
   52 KT AT KCNK...40 KT AT KHJH AND 36 KT AT KSLN/.
   HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR MAJOR
   STRENGTHENING OF THE QLCS OWING TO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER LAPSE RATES
   AND LESSER BUOYANCY IN 00Z TOP/LMN RAOBS COMPARED TO LBF. THE LACK
   OF A ROBUST LLJ SHOULD ALSO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL.
   NEVERTHELESS...THE RESIDUAL STRENGTH OF COLD POOL WILL PROBABLY HELP
   TO SLOW THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   ..GRAMS.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40289763 40409719 40379683 40039635 39449614 38679637
               38299658 38099706 38119754 38259789 38489808 38899796
               39839777 40289763 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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