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Mesoscale Discussion 1569
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LOWER MI...NRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201813Z - 201915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS PARTS OF
   LOWER MI AND INTO NRN IND. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
   SWRN LOWER MI...FEATURING PERIODIC BRIEF/SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   VWP DATA FROM GRR AND IWX SHOW A GRADUALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
   0-1 KM SRH VALUES ESTIMATED AROUND 150-200 J/KG. DESPITE THE
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AMIDST A RAIN-COOLED AIR
   MASS...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF
   500-1000 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS GIVEN THE
   FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
   NRN IND. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THESE THREATS WILL PERSIST INTO
   THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   43578407 41658488 40838599 40658647 40718681 41048680
               41638623 42418604 43138613 43598612 43998578 44058564
               44118458 43578407 

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