Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1570 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND THE WRN FL
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291912Z - 292115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANALYZED BY THE RAP OVER NRN AL/NERN MS AS OF
   19Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
   A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT OVER THE MCD AREA...WITH
   SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. POCKETS OF HEATING HAVE
   GENERALLY ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH RAP
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
   THIS INSTABILITY ESTIMATE AGREES WELL WITH ADJUSTING THE 12Z
   SOUNDING FROM BMX FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
   NLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND IS GENERALLY PRESENT
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA PER VARIOUS RADAR VWPS. 

   TWO VERY LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AS
   OF 19Z...ONE OVER NERN MS TO E-CNTRL AL...AND ANOTHER OVER W-CNTRL
   TO SERN AL. THESE CLUSTERS ARE MOVING GENERALLY SWD WITH THE MEAN
   ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR BOTH CONVECTIVE AREAS
   TO REMAIN MOSTLY DISORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK BULK SHEAR AND POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE ENHANCED NLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE
   SOME CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH AN
   OCCASIONAL TREE DOWN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY
   EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   34438932 34598879 34548792 34328691 33948556 33708546
               32078520 30718567 30388616 30368700 30288775 30568868
               31208949 33268947 34438932 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 29, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities