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Mesoscale Discussion 1570
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...NERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181659Z - 181830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SERN VA AND NERN NC.  GUSTY WINDS MAY
   ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST CENTER OF
   MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MIGRATED INTO SRN WV.  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
   OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...VOID MOSTLY OF LIGHTNING...HAS SPREAD
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WRN VA.  HOWEVER...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
   CLOUD CANOPY...STRONGER CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND TSTMS
   ARE INTENSIFYING FROM SRN CHARLOTTE COUNTY VA...SWD INTO FRANKLIN
   COUNTY NC.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY EVOLVING INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE
   AND IS PROGRESSING EWD AT 25-30KT.  IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
   STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE OFF THE VA/NC COAST AROUND 21Z. 
   GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH THE DEVELOPING SHORT SQUALL LINE.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   37257807 37267579 36107554 35767713 36277841 37257807 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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