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Mesoscale Discussion 1571
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN MO...SERN IL...SRN/ERN
   IND...AND WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292027Z - 292200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
   PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA/MO. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
   ATTM...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A QUITE UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA...WITH THE KVWX VWP SAMPLING WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 3-6
   KM AGL. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT PROCESSES
   GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD LIMIT A MORE
   ORGANIZED WIND THREAT...AND MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
   QUICKLY WEAKENS THE ONGOING CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   37698897 38108820 38778749 39108647 39748577 40098540
               40068488 39468491 38178566 37698626 37108745 36828901
               37328981 37698897 

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Page last modified: July 29, 2015
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