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Mesoscale Discussion 1571
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181900Z - 182000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH
   CONVECTION ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED
   ACROSS NERN OK WITH SEVERAL UPDRAFTS APPARENTLY NOW ROOTED IN RICHER
   NEAR-BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.  AIR MASS OVER ERN OK/WRN AR IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F. 
   IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT INITIATED THIS ACTIVITY BUT MODESTLY
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
   30-40KT EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION.  SRX VWP DEPICTS 40KT AT 5KM.  IN
   ADDITION TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
   BE NOTED...PER WDSSII WHERE ALGORITHM SUGGESTS HAIL GREATER THAN 1.5
   INCH OVER ADAIR COUNTY OK.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35949421 35109340 34249398 34409539 35729567 35949421 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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