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Mesoscale Discussion 1572
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...FAR
   SOUTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 311945Z - 312215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAKENING FRONT. 
   SEVERE HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONG STORMS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO
   PRECLUDE A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES
   OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
   NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...MOST CONCENTRATED IN BOONE COUNTY WHERE CELLS
   ARE NOW TOPPED ABOVE 50K FT.  HIGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH
   OF THIS ZONE /ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/ WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
   DEWPOINTS HOLDING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE EASTERN
   EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
    THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTORS PREVENTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
   INCLUDE WEAK SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW/FRONT...NEBULOUS MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...DRY
   MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT TRAVERSED
   THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
   SFC-TO-750 MB LAYER.  NONETHELESS...THE FLOW /AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR/ INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE 500 MB WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TO THE STORMS
   THAT CAN PERSIST.  SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH LCLS...AND SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
   WITH THE ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IN ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   DEVELOP MID-LEVEL ROTATION.

   ..CONIGLIO/HART.. 07/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42429827 42219715 41739622 41189601 40489586 40079647
               40359817 40629985 41220076 42200150 42970158 42940075
               42699926 42429827 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2015
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