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Mesoscale Discussion 1572
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WRN WI...NRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181957Z - 182130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED IN WRN/CNTRL WI ON THE
   WRN FLANK OF A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH
   EARLIER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL CU IS DEVELOPING FROM NRN IA INTO
   SERN MN/SWRN WI IN A WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...WITH
   RECENT INITIATION NOTED IN NERN IA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
   INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT HAVE HEATED TO THE MID/UPPER
   80S...WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AS ASCENT
   AHEAD OF A VORT MAX OVER NWRN MN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. 

   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE THREAT AREA...BUT
   MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35
   KTS /PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS/ WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION...WITH ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
   MARGINAL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
   SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...WHILE STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND RISK...ESPECIALLY WITH
   ANY CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 21Z IF CONFIDENCE IN A SUFFICIENT
   COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCREASES.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43239583 43609459 44219297 44859263 45439246 45699170
               45029012 44528953 44278938 43608951 43218985 42799105
               42659187 42619249 42609344 42649404 42789479 42889571
               43239583 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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