MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0945 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OK/FAR SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWEST AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 160245Z - 160415Z
   
   MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT /AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH PERIODIC
   SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
   OK/PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWEST AR. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...A SEVERE TSTM COULD BE NEEDED LATER
   TONIGHT PROVIDED AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR.
   
   MULTIPLE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR
   SOUTHERN KS ALONG/NORTH OF SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
   OUTFLOW. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
   WEAK INTO THE OVERNIGHT BASED UPON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE...A MODEST
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME IN VICINITY OF  WEST-EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY
   AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY UNPERTURBED ACROSS A
   LARGE PART OF NORTHERN OK INTO ADJACENT NORTHWEST AR...WITH AROUND
   2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER THE LAMONT OK OBSERVED RAOB...WITH EVEN
   STRONGER INSTABILITY NOTED PER 00Z NORMAN/SPRINGFIELD/LITTLE ROCK
   OBSERVED RAOBS. REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS SAMPLE MODERATELY
   STRONG/VEERED FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
   MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   37139888 37209640 36649370 35389371 35789699 36210012
               37139888