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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...W/CNTRL SD AND NCNTRL/WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262048Z - 262215Z
MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW-SE FROM SCNTRL
NEB NWWD INTO SCNTRL SD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING
INVOF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S TO THE
BLACK HILLS. STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE CAP
NOTED ON 18Z RAP SOUNDING AND APPROACH OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT TIED TO
THE MT/WY MID-LVL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR TSTM INITIATION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIATION/STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR IN SEVERAL AREAS...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN/BLACK
HILLS...INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
AS HIGH BASED STORMS FROM ERN WY/NEB PNHDL MOVE EWD. STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXISTS GENERALLY FROM NEB/SD BORDER NWD...BUT WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AREAWIDE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL. PRIND THAT A NIGHTTIME MCS WILL EVOLVE OVER S SD/N NEB LATER
TONIGHT AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..RACY.. 06/26/2008
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
44420370 45600306 45830182 45570053 44440013 43400017
42400021 41550056 41190134 41330231 41950325
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