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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OK/FAR SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWEST AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160245Z - 160415Z
MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT /AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH PERIODIC
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OK/PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWEST AR. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...A SEVERE TSTM COULD BE NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT PROVIDED AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR.
MULTIPLE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHERN KS ALONG/NORTH OF SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
OUTFLOW. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK INTO THE OVERNIGHT BASED UPON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE...A MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME IN VICINITY OF WEST-EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY UNPERTURBED ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN OK INTO ADJACENT NORTHWEST AR...WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER THE LAMONT OK OBSERVED RAOB...WITH EVEN
STRONGER INSTABILITY NOTED PER 00Z NORMAN/SPRINGFIELD/LITTLE ROCK
OBSERVED RAOBS. REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS SAMPLE MODERATELY
STRONG/VEERED FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
..GUYER.. 07/16/2009
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37139888 37209640 36649370 35389371 35789699 36210012
37139888
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