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Mesoscale Discussion 1574
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011551Z - 011645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/VT/ADIRONDACKS MOVING
   ENEWD WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG SWLY H5 FLOW /40-50 KT/.  CLOUD BREAKS
   AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER WRN/NRN MAINE WILL AID IN WEAK
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AMIDST BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   50S.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE
   DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
   BEFORE EXITING INTO ERN QUEBEC.  A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS HAIL MAY RESULT...WITH THIS STRONGER STORM RISK BECOMING
   HIGHEST IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS CAN OCCUR.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 08/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   47176882 47346817 46856770 45616752 44906874 44737105
               47176882 

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Page last modified: August 01, 2015
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