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Mesoscale Discussion 1575
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182129Z - 182330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
   ISOLATED SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT
   TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM W-CNTRL KS SWD INTO FAR N-CNTRL OK AND THEN SEWD INTO E-CNTRL
   OK. CONDITIONS W/SW OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WITH DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO
   MID 60S WITH CONDITIONS E/NE OF THE BOUNDARY MORE MOIST BUT COOLER.
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ARE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
   70S...SUPPORTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM
   3000-4000 J PER KG. 

   UPPER FLOW IS WEAK WITH LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION EXPECTED.
   HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
   SVR HAIL AND WIND. UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL FAVOR
   PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
   THREAT COUPLED WITH A DISORGANIZED MODE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37059834 37039751 36099558 35079572 35979850 37059834 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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