Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1575
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1575 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012003Z - 012030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST AND PERHAPS HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A
   RESIDUAL/DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NERN KS ARCING NWWD
   INTO SWRN NEB AND THE PANHANDLE.  ANOTHER COLD POOL SURGE --OWING
   ITS ORIGINS TO WEAKENED CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN NEB-- WILL MOVE
   INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   OVER THE PAST HOUR...AN AGITATED CU FIELD WITH EMBEDDED DEVELOPING
   STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL NEB PANHANDLE.

   AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE PROXIMITY TO STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OVER ERN WY/NERN CO HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   ON THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
   DEWPOINTS/.  THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   DAKOTAS AND HEATING WILL PROBABLY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORMS AND LEAD
   TO SOME STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR AROUND 30 KT MAY SUPPORT SOME STORMS TO ATTAIN ORGANIZED
   CHARACTERISTICS AND A LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION.  THE PERCEIVED ISOLD NATURE/MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL
   STRONG/SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 08/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41830379 42210366 42140245 41710166 41170210 41200294
               41830379 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 01, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities