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Mesoscale Discussion 1576
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...

   VALID 182149Z - 182245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK HAS EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
   REMAINING PORTION OF WW 465. UPSTREAM MULTICELL TO TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
   ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...OBSERVATIONAL
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING/PRIOR OVERTURNING HAS YIELDED TEMPERATURES
   HOLDING IN THE 70S ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 465. GREATER
   WARMTH AMIDST MODERATE BUOYANCY REMAINS CONFINED S OF CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF RAH TO EWN AT 21Z. UPSTREAM
   CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT HAS APPEARED RELATIVELY
   MUSHY IN 1-MIN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIKELY OWING TO MARGINAL
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FLOW DECREASING WITH HEIGHT AOA 5 KM AGL
   PER RAX VWP DATA. STILL...WITHIN A BELT OF ENHANCED WLYS IN THE 2-5
   KM AGL LAYER...MULTICELL CLUSTERING WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS FROM LARGELY SUB-SEVERE GUSTS. WEAK SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES MAY ALSO PERSIST ALONG AND JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36037999 36237852 36237750 36117684 35757674 35267714
               35077753 35017821 35147938 35288015 35398051 35668071
               35738068 36037999 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2014
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