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Mesoscale Discussion 1576
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN ND...ERN SD...SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012013Z - 012115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED BY EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALED WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR
   S-CNTRL ND...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS SE...AND
   A TROUGH EXTENDING TO ITS SW. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
   BOUNDARIES...IN CONCERT WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
   SEWD-PROGRESSING IMPULSE ALOFT...SHOULD OFFER ENOUGH FOCUS FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   TRENDS EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING CU FIELD NEAR DICKEY/LAMOURE COUNTIES IN
   ND...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING.

   AMPLE INSOLATION /E.G. SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
   90/ AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR/SW OF THE WARM
   FRONT. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-35
   KTS SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELLULAR/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A STRONG-WIND THREAT IN MORE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION. TO THE SW OF THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT...CLOUD COVER/OVERTURNING FROM MORNING CONVECTION HAS
   LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AND THE RESULTANT SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
   POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.
   NONETHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45090010 46510041 46960015 47129844 46489679 44829445
               44059490 43659564 43509685 45090010 

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Page last modified: August 01, 2015
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