MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF NC/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161731Z - 161900Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL WILL INCREASE OVER DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND W OF SOP SWWD/SWD TO NEAR CAE
   AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT.  LONGER
   RADAR LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST THAT BACKGROUND ASCENT IS POSSIBLY BEING
   ENHANCED BY AN MCV OVER CNTRL NC...REMNANT FROM NOCTURNAL TSTM
   COMPLEX WHICH DECAYED EARLIER TODAY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. 
   AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS HAS WARMED THROUGH
   THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75
   F...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG.
   
   12Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
   CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE COAST BY THIS
   EVENING.  AREA VWPS SHOW THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
   MARGINAL...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   LAT...LON   34268021 35677870 36267710 35947575 34637597 32637945
               31968079 32868111 33638083 34268021