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Mesoscale Discussion 1577
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...SWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 182349Z - 190115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN PROBABLE WITH
   SCATTERED STORMS PERSISTING/DEVELOPING ALONG THE MN/IA/WI BORDER
   AREA. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO FORM INTO A SMALL
   MCS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE THUS FAR STRUGGLED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY
   INTENSE WITHIN A MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
   HOWEVER...THE NUMBER OF UPDRAFTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR
   OWING TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MN. THIS INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS
   MAY YIELD AMALGAMATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZATION INTO A SMALL MCS GIVEN A ROBUST 700-500 MB WLY SPEED
   MAX AS SAMPLED BY FSD VWP DATA. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF CU IN MOST
   OF CNTRL/WRN IA W OF A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DSM
   TO ALO RENDERS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SWD DEVELOPMENT.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44299416 44409329 44229176 43739061 43439019 43059040
               42709055 42199120 41899228 41879389 42029486 42499577
               42949593 43699552 44299416 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2014
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