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Mesoscale Discussion 1578
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020555Z - 020830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE SAMPLED BY THE ARX
   VWP HIGHLIGHTS THE WAA REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW ACROSS A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ANALYZED FROM NWRN MN TO SRN LM. IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR
   TRENDS SUGGEST A RECENT INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
   CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THIS MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   A SLIGHT...LOCALIZED BOOST TO THE STRENGTH OF WAA DOWNSTREAM OF A
   SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IMPLIED BY MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS
   COULD BE ENCOURAGING THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   REGION. HOWEVER...WAA ASIDE...OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT DEEP
   ASCENT APPEARS TO BE LACKING...AND ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS DOUBTFUL.

   REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR
   COMBINED WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
   INSTANCES OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WITH A
   SVR-HAIL RISK. NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE PBL WILL LARGELY MITIGATE
   ANY SVR-WIND RISK. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT CONVECTION WERE TO ARISE
   AND RESULT IN COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION FOSTERING UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
   GROWTH...SOME SVR-WIND RISK COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT -- IN
   WHICH CASE WW-ISSUANCE PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE. THIS SCENARIO
   CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY OWING TO THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
   ASCENT...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   43568974 44529196 45409172 45549028 45078858 43808821
               43568974 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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