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Mesoscale Discussion 1579
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN MN INCLUDING ARROWHEAD.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020608Z - 020815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS MAY OFFER ADDITIONAL BUT MORE MRGL
   WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS IT MOVES
   SEWD OVER DISCUSSION AREA.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...BAND OF TSTMS AT 06Z EXTENDED FROM NRN BELTRAMI COUNTY
   ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN ONT JUST NW OF ST. LOUIS COUNTY.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD PROCEED SEWD AT SPEEDS VARYING FROM 35-45 KT. 
   PREVIOUSLY MOST INTENSE/ANCHORING CELL IN THIS CONVECTION PRODUCED
   MEASURED 58-KT GUST AT ROSEAU/ROX AT 454Z...WITH APPARENT
   ACCELERATION AID FROM DRIER LAYER JUST ABOVE SFC PER MODIFIED INL
   RAOB.  THAT AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR CONDITIONS FARTHER
   DOWNSHEAR SUGGEST NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY
   WITH TIME AND FURTHER NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING...REDUCING
   BUT NOT ENTIRELY ELIMINATING WIND THREAT IF HOLDING STORM INTENSITY
   CONSTANT.  ORIGINAL WIND-PRODUCING TSTM HAS WEAKENED
   SUBSTANTIALLY...HOWEVER...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS ENE IN
   SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE REGIME SHOULD MOVE INTO BORDER COUNTIES OVER
   AND S OF BOUNDARY WATERS REGION DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY SHARP SW-NE-ALIGNED GRADIENT IN
   BUOYANCY RELATED TO SLOW-MOVING LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONT ORIENTED NW-SE
   OVER THIS REGION.  MUCAPE RANGES FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG IN CENTRAL MN
   TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER ERN ARROWHEAD...AS BOTH LOW-LEVEL THETAE
   AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT.  BACKBUILDING
   INTO MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER N-CENTRAL/NWRN
   MN...BUT IS CONTRAINDICATED ATTM BY PRECONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SURGE
   READILY APPARENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS.  TSTMS GENERALLY SHOULD
   MOVE ESEWD WITHIN AND JUST NE OF TIGHTEST PART OF THAT BUOYANCY
   GRADIENT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE GREATEST...OCCASIONALLY
   OFFERING HAIL AND STG GUSTS.

   ..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48279532 48659425 48599385 48539379 48529355 48629338
               48629285 48519259 48439269 48449250 48239236 48359227
               48349201 48229196 48169167 48039155 48039138 48299085
               48079074 48109010 47978990 48048977 47988945 47848999
               47469104 46859204 48279532 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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