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Mesoscale Discussion 1579
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA TO ADJACENT SRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191643Z - 191915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GENERALLY MOVE EWD
   ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AL THROUGH SOUTHERN GA TO PART OF
   FAR SOUTHERN SC.  THE LACK FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL
   PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...TIME-LAPSE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
   ANALYSES INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SC SWWD INTO
   SERN GA AND THEN WWD INTO SERN AL.  RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TSTMS
   HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SRN GA AND SRN
   AL...WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW UP TO 2 INCHES AND
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S/ THAT HAS ALREADY BECOME
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...30 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT EWD
   MOVEMENT/PROPAGATION OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS COMBINED
   WITH ANY COLD-POOL ENHANCEMENT...AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN SERN
   GA...SHOULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31348130 31008200 30928359 31078484 31278601 31548662
               31758663 31878581 31908369 31888208 32208189 32338187
               32148074 31538116 31348130 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2014
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