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Mesoscale Discussion 1580
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IND...PART OF
   EASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191803Z - 191900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SRN LOWER MI SSWWD THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IND...NWRN OH...TO
   EAST-CENTRAL IL.  GREATEST SEVERE RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATED AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL AND SWRN
   LOWER MI THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO NERN IL /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO
   METRO AREA/...WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN EAST CENTRAL IL.  THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS FORMED EAST OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 17Z EXTENDED
   FROM NRN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SWWD THROUGH NRN IL TO NRN MO...AND
   ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.  THE MESOSCALE-LINEAR
   STRUCTURE OF THESE STORMS IS LIKELY ATTENDANT TO THE ORIENTATION OF
   THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AND THE LEADING EXTENT OF DEEP
   LAYER ASCENT SPREADING E/SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

   ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA /EAST OF THE
   DEVELOPING STORMS/...WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW EXCEEDING 1.5
   INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F/...IS
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/
   INTENSITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
   STORMS.  STORM MERGERS RESULTING IN A CONGLOMERATE OF COLD POOLS
   COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
   ACTIVITY ADVANCES INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HAIL WILL ALSO BE A
   THREAT.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW
   ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF SRN LOWER MI THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IND TO
   EAST-CENTRAL IL.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40308831 40818791 41408715 42378565 43188369 42918323
               42468325 40758492 39848625 39628767 39788841 40308831 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2014
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