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Mesoscale Discussion 1581
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IA...FAR NWRN MO...FAR ERN
   NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020948Z - 021215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD/SEWD THROUGH THE
   EARLY-MORNING HOURS...POSING A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL. WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND AREA PLANAR-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF
   1-1.5-KM FLOW FROM VWPS IMPLY A DEARTH OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
   LOWER MO VALLEY AND VICINITY. NEVERTHELESS...SLIGHT VEERING OF THE
   FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL IMPLIED BY THE OAX VWP IS SIGNALING VERY
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA. THIS IS PROBABLY THE CAUSE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS
   EVOLVING FROM PARTS OF FAR ERN NEB TO W-CNTRL IA. WITH LARGE-SCALE
   VERTICAL MOTION BEING MOSTLY NEUTRAL BASED ON MOISTURE-CHANNEL
   IMAGERY...CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BREEDING
   UPSCALE GROWTH AND A SVR-WIND RISK IS VERY LOW IN THE NOCTURNALLY
   STABILIZED PBL. REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP SHEAR
   MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED SVR HAIL GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS
   ROOTED ABOVE THE STABLE PBL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
   ESEWD/SEWD AIDED BY 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
   EARLY-MORNING HOURS.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41349599 42579452 42239298 41179293 40389417 40509571
               41349599 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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