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Mesoscale Discussion 1581
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191920Z - 192115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH
   THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME.  STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE AT LEAST A RISK
   FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...BUT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   COULD SUBSEQUENTLY ALSO INCREASE.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WW COULD
   BECOME NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...WHILE ONE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES MIGRATING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANOTHER IS EVIDENT TO
   ITS SOUTH...NEAR THE ST. LOUIS AREA...TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH INDICATES A BELT OF
   35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
   /COINCIDING WITH A NARROW PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG A
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
   PARTS OF WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
   MISSOURI.

   WITH INHIBITION BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
   FOR MOIST MIXED LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE
   DEW POINTS...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG...RECENT HIGH
   RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT INDICATING INCREASING VIGOROUS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.  GIVEN
   THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   INITIALLY...MAINLY WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...BEFORE COLD POOL
   CONSOLIDATION PERHAPS CONTRIBUTES TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND
   AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG WING GUSTS WHICH COULD AT LEAST
   APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37789026 38578876 39048778 39348719 39428642 38628588
               37138754 36658909 36759056 37789026 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2014
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