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Mesoscale Discussion 1582
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN...ERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021116Z - 021345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY THIS
   MORNING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
   PARTS OF ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN A BAND OF ASCENT RELATED TO A
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE REGION PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY.
   CLOUD-TOP COOLING IMPLIED BY IR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE WWD
   DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHERE A FEED OF ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY IS BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE W. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
   SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
   AMIDST MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
   OCCUR...AIDED BY AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE MVX VWP.
   HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY DISPLACED ESEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER AND POINTS EWD...THE SVR-HAIL RISK
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46999736 47489548 46819449 45919539 46119687 46999736 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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