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Mesoscale Discussion 1584
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH TO WESTERN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 200715Z - 200845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST RISK MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
   AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OH/FAR NORTHEAST
   KY/WESTERN WV. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD
   REMAIN MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...FOCUSED ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...A WELL-ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL OH/NORTHEAST KY TO WESTERN WV OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHER
   SCATTERED/LESS-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN OH.
   EARLIER...MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 36 KT/39 KT WERE NOTED AT HAMILTON
   AIRPORT /KHAO/ AND CINCINNATI-COVINGTON /KCVG/ RESPECTIVELY.
   SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
   INDIANAPOLIS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A WEAK MCV MAY BE INFLUENCING THE
   QUASI-LINEAR ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN OH. EVEN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
   INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED POSSIBLE...A RELATIVELY COOL/INCREASINGLY
   STABLE BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO PRECLUDE SEVERE-CALIBER WIND SPEEDS
   FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

   ..GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38348395 39478374 39738243 39748142 39348115 38398190
               38268283 38348395 

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Page last modified: August 20, 2014
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