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Mesoscale Discussion 1585
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 200740Z - 200945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST
   NEB/SOUTHEAST SD INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA.

   DISCUSSION...A WEAK MCV APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AHEAD OF A BROADER ZONE OF WEAK
   HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH.
   WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATIVE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET...WARM ADVECTION-AIDED ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF
   REGIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER AID SCATTERED ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST
   NEB/SOUTHEAST SD INTO WESTERN IA. WITHIN THE SOURCE REGION...STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXISTS ATOP A
   COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 2000-3000+ J/KG MUCAPE LIKELY AS
   PER EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA. WHEN
   CONSIDERING THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS
   SUCH...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN EVENTUAL TREND FOR UPDRAFT
   MERGERS/CLUSTERING WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER
   HAIL STONES OVER TIME.

   ..GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   43769874 43079646 42149439 40579353 41089601 41449815
               42519844 43769874 

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Page last modified: August 20, 2014
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