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Mesoscale Discussion 1585
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021709Z - 021915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC ILLUSTRATES TWO CLUSTERS OF
   STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD...WITH ONE BEGINNING TO MOVE
   OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND ANOTHER OVER N-CNTRL WI. MUCH OF THIS
   CONVECTION IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BASED UPON 12Z RAOBS AND
   SFC TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
   THE MCD. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AND WAA ATOP A SFC BOUNDARY ARE MAINTAINING THIS VIGOROUS
   CONVECTION. INDEED...AS THE WRN CONVECTION REACHED A PLUME OF STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION...NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION
   OCCURRED...WITH ROBUST HAIL-GROWTH SIGNATURES OBSERVED OVER
   PRICE/ONEIDA COUNTIES IN WI. MOREOVER...STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
   RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS IS AUGMENTING
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...FURTHER SUPPORTING VIGOROUS HAIL GROWTH. AS
   CELLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/SE AND FURTHER HEATING OCCURS...THEY WILL
   LIKELY BECOME MORE SFC-BASED...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.
   THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45089085 45379138 45979162 46259112 46299047 46368965
               46228803 45788631 44838675 44478718 44608951 45089085 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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