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Mesoscale Discussion 1586
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND CNTRL LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021856Z - 022000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE SRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE EXITING INTO LAKE HURON. 
   UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW OVER CNTRL
   LOWER MI IS UNCLEAR.  IF THE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BECOMES
   LIKELY/IMMINENT...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN
   OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE TRAILING WSWWD FROM A QLCS OVER
   LAKE HURON INTO CNTRL AND W-CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI.  SURFACE
   TEMPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND ARE APPROACHING 90 DEG F.  THE
   18Z GRB AND DVN RAOBS SHOWED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C
   PER KM/ AND THIS PLUME OF GREATER INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT EWD INTO
   LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST H7 45-KT FLOW.  AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING HAS YIELDED A SUBSTANTIALLY MIXED PBL /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   MIXING TO NEAR 60 DEG F/ AND MODERATE BUOYANCY PER THE 18Z DTX RAOB.
   IF ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP ON THE TRAILING OUTFLOW
   OVER W-CNTRL AND CNTRL LOWER MI...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
   STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF DMGG
   WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP.  WILL MONITOR
   SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CINH
   CONTINUES TO ERODE.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42948496 43298423 43948307 43558251 42958245 42678290
               42488391 42518472 42948496 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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