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Mesoscale Discussion 1587
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL SD...SW/SCNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202042Z - 202245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
   BRIEF TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   NRN/CNTRL SD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL ND. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW OVER NWRN
   SD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   DAKOTAS. A CORRIDOR OF MOIST AIR EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO
   SWRN ND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NCNTRL SD EXTENDING
   NWWD INTO SCNTRL ND WITH CLEARING EVIDENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
   ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD. IN RESPONSE...THE STRONGEST SFC HEATING HAS
   OCCURRED WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BISMARCK SWD TO NEAR PIERRE SD
   ALONG WHICH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. CONVECTION
   IS INITIATING TO THE NORTH OF THE MESOLOW AND ON THE WRN EDGE OF
   STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM NEAR DICKINSON ND SWD INTO PERKINS COUNTY
   SD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT MARKEDLY INCREASE UNTIL LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK CAP THAT IS STILL IN PLACE.

   CONCERNING THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE RAPID CITY SD PROFILE
   SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND ABOUT 40 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE FURTHER TO THE NORTH
   WHICH WILL MAKE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   DUE TO THE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPERCELLS WILL
   HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD
   INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 08/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   47480061 47300272 46650331 45360322 44800203 44360089
               44559996 45199905 46719960 47480061 

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Page last modified: August 20, 2014
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