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Mesoscale Discussion 1587
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL WI...WRN/SRN MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021900Z - 022100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A
   S/SEWD-PROGRESSING SQUALL LINE...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
   TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR
   TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS EXHIBIT WINDS VEERING TO THE
   N/NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS PRESSURE
   RISES UPWARDS OF 1 MB/HR. THIS LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IS LIKELY A
   MANIFESTATION OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPINGING UPON THE
   REGION FROM THE NW. THUS...AS SFC CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED AND
   MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED...CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN/CNTRL WI EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MI.
   INDEED...A DEVELOPING CU FIELD OVER WI PROBABLY REPRESENTS THE
   INITIAL REGION FOR INITIATION...WITH CONVECTION INCREASING
   DOWNSTREAM INTO MI...LARGELY FOCUSED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION.

   18Z RAOBS FROM GRB/DVN ILLUSTRATE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
   THE REGION. IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE
   VERTICAL ACCELERATION IN THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE...SUGGESTING LARGE
   HAIL SHOULD BE A THREAT WITH INITIAL QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS. AS
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE OCCURS HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
   THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...AIDED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW OF 40-50 KTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING. FURTHERMORE...OBSERVED
   PROFILES/MESOANALYSIS DISPLAY SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND EFFECTIVE
   SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 M2/S2...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. AS SUCH...WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   43928576 43298441 42578414 42198439 42298650 42468867
               42608966 42839068 43329098 44329125 44589118 44938981
               44648775 43928576 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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