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Mesoscale Discussion 1588
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN NEB...FAR SERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021931Z - 022130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   A LARGE HAIL REPORT/STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT...WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
   DEPICT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST A FIELD OF GROWING
   CU/TCU OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO FAR SERN WY. SFC
   CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION
   TO WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE ALOFT...HAVE BEEN
   SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THIS CONVECTION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
   AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
   35 KTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE AND
   ORGANIZATION...FAVORING SOME LARGE HAIL GROWTH IN THE STRONGEST
   STORMS. FURTHERMORE...AMPLE HEATING HAS YIELDED SFC TEMPS IN THE
   LOW-MID 90S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
   STRONG-WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...COVERAGE OF
   STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42380437 42410424 41990020 41869825 41599776 40709782
               40739879 40740052 41080267 41190445 41920486 42380437 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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