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Mesoscale Discussion 1588
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...NRN
   GA...FAR SWRN NC...FAR WRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...

   VALID 202232Z - 210030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW
   468. ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH ACROSS WRN MID
   TN...FAR NRN AL/GA...AND FAR ERN KY/WRN VA. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES ACROSS THE REGION
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE AIRMASS ACROSS
   MIDDLE TN HAS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING. HOWEVER...WRN MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND NRN GA ARE JUST
   NOW BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   STILL IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SPC
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J PER KG. AS A
   RESULT...SOME SVR IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT THE LACK
   OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES /0-6 BULK
   SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KT PER HTX VAD/ SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT
   ISOLATED. 

   BETTER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS KY /0-6 BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT PER JKL
   VAD/ AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME HINTS OF COLD POOL
   AMALGAMATION. HOWEVER IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT /ACROSS MID TN
   EWD INTO FAR WRN NC AND FAR WRN VA/...PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND/OR
   CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME
   ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE WATCH ACROSS FAR ERN KY AND FAR
   WRN VA BUT THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MODEST
   INSTABILITY. 

   ADDITIONAL WATCHES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE UNLIKELY BUT TRENDS ACROSS
   THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER.. 08/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...
   HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34938837 36468840 37508711 38208563 38198281 36988174
               34298318 34938837 

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Page last modified: August 21, 2014
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