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Mesoscale Discussion 1589
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

   VALID 022229Z - 022345Z

   CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE...FIRST PARAGRAPH...OF DISCUSSION

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD
   POOL ...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS
   CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A MORE
   GRADUAL GENERAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM ALSO OCCURRING.  A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
   INCLUDING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

   DISCUSSION...THE SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITH A BOW ECHO
   SIGNATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KT...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN
   THUMB BY AROUND 23Z.  SEVERAL 3-SECOND PEAK GUSTS TO 50 KT HAVE BEEN
   RECORDED AT ASOS SITES WITH THIS FEATURE.

   ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH UPSCALE
   GROWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST...AND MAY ACCELERATE EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD AT SIMILAR VELOCITIES...INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE
   MICHIGAN COAST...THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN JUST TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR SMALL-SCALE BOW.  GIVEN THE VERY WARM TO
   HOT...FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED...AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT
   ACROSS THIS REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
   CONTINUING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
   THE COLD POOL...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE ALONG THE GUST
   FRONT.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAGINAW/ LANSING/FLINT AREAS
   BY THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43948680 43908521 44068409 43878349 43598299 43348269
               42878299 42578401 42688630 42918674 43338718 43668704
               43948680 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2015
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