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Mesoscale Discussion 1590
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO AND SURROUNDING AREAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022235Z - 030030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
   APPROACH/SKIRT LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE
   TO MOVE EAST. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR TERM. A WATCH IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2220 UTC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/BOW ECHO MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
   ONTARIO...NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
   FOCUSED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT/STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
   THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
   FIELDS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEW
   POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID- 50S F AND COOLING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES AS EVENING PROGRESSES.

   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
   INITIAL BOW ECHO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TREK ACROSS WESTERN
   PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO /AND POSSIBLY THE NIAGRA FRONTIER/ WITHIN
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN THE COOLER/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT OVER LAKE ONTARIO...A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
   HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CORES...PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR
   TERM.

   A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43867976 44227808 44337699 44287614 44107537 43657531
               43247564 42957691 42967805 43007897 43117986 43867976 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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