Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1591
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1591 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 022322Z - 030015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT WITHIN A
   VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...ALONG A
   SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER-80S TO
   LOW-90S F WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-T0-MID 70S F.
   THIS...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED TO
   YIELD MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON
   THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 35 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF
   CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   SURFACE-COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES. 

   HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
   WITH TIME...AND THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME HEATING AND LOWER SURFACE DEW
   POINT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH /ACROSS MISSOURI/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   A WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THERE
   MAY ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
   A SUSTAINED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   ASSESSED.

   ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   41169762 41509674 41799335 41619202 40909148 40129165
               39879332 39889541 40339703 40629771 41169762 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 03, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities