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Mesoscale Discussion 1591
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 210529Z - 210730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL
   ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM FAR EASTERN SD INTO
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE SD/MN BORDER VICINITY AS OF
   0515Z...WITH THESE STORMS PRECEDING A SMALL/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHEAST SD. NEAR THE CREST OF A
   SHORTWAVE RIDGE...THIS INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   IS BEING AIDED BY A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND UNSTABLE
   SOURCE REGION AIR MASS. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SIOUX FALLS
   SD/OMAHA NEB ARE SAMPLING A 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH
   AN EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM OMAHA SAMPLING A VERY UNSTABLE
   SOURCE REGION WITH NEARLY 7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 5000+
   J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE. AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   SUPPORTS AN INCREASING NUMBER OF STORMS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
   MN. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK GIVEN A RELATIVELY STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
   OUT...ESPECIALLY IF STORM MERGERS/UPSCALE TRENDS OCCUR OVER TIME.

   ..GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46579487 45619346 43929312 43629531 44939730 45959716
               46579487 

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Page last modified: August 21, 2014
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