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Mesoscale Discussion 1592
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND FAR NORTHERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...

   VALID 210858Z - 211030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND
   EXTREME NORTHERN IA OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470
   CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN UNTIL 12Z.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TENDED TO MERGE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...A TREND
   THAT SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
   AT LEAST A SEMI-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVING.
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL...MAINLY IN A MARGINAL SENSE...WILL REMAIN A
   POSSIBILITY PRIMARY ON THE SOUTHERNMOST FLANK OF THE EVOLVING MCS
   ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN/FAR NORTHERN IA...IN PROXIMITY TO AN
   RESERVOIR OF UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFOREMENTIONED
   UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
   A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...WHERE
   A CORRIDOR OF 2+MB/2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED. THIS SCENARIO
   WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY AN MCV AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND FIELD
   AS EVIDENCED BY 40-50 KT LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AS PER WSR-88D
   VWP DATA FROM SIOUX FALLS/ABERDEEN SD. WHILE THE STABILITY OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE SUCH...SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
   REACHING THE SURFACE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED IN VICINITY OF
   THE WARM FRONT AS ADDITIONAL UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH OCCURS.

   ..GUYER.. 08/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45539608 45829542 45349379 44459218 43739238 43119491
               43349570 44279560 44799635 45539608 

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Page last modified: August 21, 2014
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