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Mesoscale Discussion 1592
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0802 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...SRN LWR MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...463...

   VALID 030102Z - 030300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   462...463...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES WITH ONGOING
   CONVECTION AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.  TRENDS
   ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
   MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA/
   SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN
   LOWER MICHIGAN HAS SPREAD SOUTH OF STRONGER LINGERING CONVECTION NOW
   TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH AND EAST OF FLINT...AND THE LEADING
   EDGE APPEARS TO BE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 20 KT.  THIS
   BOUNDARY IS INTERSECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
   MICHIGAN BY ANOTHER ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION...CURVING FROM NORTH
   OF GRAND RAPIDS INTO THE MILWAUKEE VICINITY...WHERE INFLOW OF
   MODERATE TO LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE IS MAINTAINING THE MOST
   VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR.

   IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER
   INTERIOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
   INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND 01-03Z...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW PIVOTING INTO/THROUGH
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  

   OTHERWISE...LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
   ADVANCING OUTFLOW NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND
   CHICAGO MAY MAINTAIN THE MOST PROMINENT CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT...IN THE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT WEST
   SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...COLD POOL
   STRENGTHENING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS DOES
   NOT YET APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ..KERR.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   42688206 42478243 41818351 41788562 41738640 41418761
               42258820 43138847 43538773 43378562 43998424 43338233
               42688206 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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