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Mesoscale Discussion 1593
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL...NRN IND...NRN OH AND SRN LWR MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...465...

   VALID 030419Z - 030545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   463...465...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH WITH A LINGERING LINE OF STORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
   THROUGH 05-07Z.  A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR
   NORTHERN OHIO...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
   POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION AT UP TO 30 KT.  LIFT ALONG THIS FEATURE HAS
   REMAINED SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RENEWED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT... BUT LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST GENERAL
   INTENSITY TRENDS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD SWING.  STRONGER MID/UPPER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO
   BEGIN TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHORTLY.  AS
   THIS OCCURS...40-50 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
   CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
   BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  COUPLED WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   WITHIN A NARROWING PRE-CONVECTIVE LINE INSTABILITY AXIS...SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
   THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME.

   ..KERR.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41388692 41298457 41558375 41778168 42158083 42078037
               41338090 40888276 40398594 40598822 41548904 41388692 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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