Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1593
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1593 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0904 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MN/WI...NRN IL AND NRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471...

   VALID 211404Z - 211530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. 
   SUBSTANTIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT OR RE-INTENSIFICATION CURRENTLY APPEARS
   UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THE REMAINING VALID
   PORTION OF WW 471 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE 17Z SCHEDULED
   EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE MID-LEVEL
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
   CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
   MID DAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF OTHERWISE GENERALLY RISING MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHTS.  A TRAILING MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER APPEARS
   LIKELY TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY...AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
   OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER.  HOWEVER...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   APPEARS GENERALLY ROOTED WITH FORCING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD
   POOL...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH AT LEAST
   EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR.. 08/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   45558979 43998771 42738785 41668919 41629103 41759255
               41949386 42519446 43719377 43909181 44139031 45449170
               45558979 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities