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Mesoscale Discussion 1594
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030550Z - 030815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINGERING SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MO. WW 464 WAS PREVIOUSLY
   LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ACROSS PART OF THE AREA.
   HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT ATOP RESIDUAL OUTFLOW -- DEPOSITED BY
   EARLIER CONVECTION THAT SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL 
   MO -- IS MAINTAINING A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NODAWAY
   COUNTY TO MERCER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY FLUXES OF
   HIGH THETA-E AIR EMANATING FROM LOCATIONS SW OF THE OUTFLOW 
   BOUNDARY -- E.G. SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN NERN KS. WITH THE EARLIER 00Z TOP RAOB
   SAMPLING MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.8 C PER KM
   IN THE H7-H5 LAYER/ THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING RISK FOR A FEW
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
   THE SHORT TERM AS TSTMS SLOWLY ADVANCE SEWD/SSEWD. HOWEVER...WITH
   THE EAX VWP SUGGESTING OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS LIMITING
   THE STRENGTH OF WAA...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT AS IMPLIED BY MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS AS NOCTURNAL MLCINH GROWS. AS SUCH...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
   NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39609416 40119497 40379519 40489492 40479357 39839298
               39509347 39609416 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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