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Mesoscale Discussion 1595
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 212139Z - 212345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED NATURE
   OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT KYUX RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEWD PROGRESSING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE TSTMS OVER FAR S-CNTRL CA. LARGE SCALE
   LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS OUTFLOW.

   BOUNDARY LAYER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
   WELL-MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. THESE
   INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL HELP SUPPORT STRONG/SVR WIND GUST
   POTENTIAL. SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES DCAPE OVER THE AREA AROUND
   1000 J/KG. FARTHER E /S-CNTRL AZ/...BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY
   COOLER /LOW 80S/...LIMITING THE EWD EXTENT OF POSSIBLE DAMAGING
   WINDS. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   32671593 33361589 33811561 34131490 34151434 33931378
               33301317 32891305 32041312 32201394 32471457 32651499
               32671593 

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Page last modified: August 21, 2014
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