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Mesoscale Discussion 1595
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030706Z - 030930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH
   ADDITIONAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE UNLIKELY. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W/E-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
   STRETCHING FROM NEAR MFD TO N OF LAF MOVING SWD AROUND 30 KT.
   SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA SAMPLING THIS LINE SUGGEST THAT ITS
   ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY LIES AHEAD OF THE PARENT
   CONVECTION. WITH AREA VWPS SAMPLING GENERALLY SQUALL-LINE-PARALLEL
   LOW/MID-LEVEL MEAN FLOW...THE IMPLIED ANAFRONTAL CONFIGURATION OF
   THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS IT SPREADS SWD.

   NEVERTHELESS...A FEED OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW -- REF
   00Z ILX RAOB SAMPLING AROUND 13.0-13.5 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIO --
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ATOP THE
   ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. DESPITE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE
   PBL...IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /AROUND -65C/
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ARE BEING MAINTAINED.
   THIS IS IN PROXIMITY TO A PLUME OF 1.00-1.50-INCH PW EXTENDING NEWD
   FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PER GPS DATA. FURTHERMORE...WITH
   MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS
   FACILITATING ELEVATED BUOYANCY...A CONTINUED SWD SAG OF THE ONGOING
   SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING -- REACHING
   COLUMBUS OHIO TO INDIANAPOLIS IN THE 0815Z-0930Z TIME FRAME.

   ULTIMATELY...CONTINUING NOCTURNAL GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY WILL
   LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF THIS CONVECTION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   IS LACKING...BASED UPON MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. IN THE
   MEANTIME...ILN AND IND VWPS SAMPLED 30-40 KT OF FLOW ABOVE THE SFC
   IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...INDICATING THAT CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT COULD AID IN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH THE LIMA
   OHIO ASOS RECENTLY REPORTING A 50-KT WIND GUST. HOWEVER...THE
   GROWING MLCINH AND ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
   GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL SVR-WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
   EARLY-MORNING HOURS. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED STRONG-WIND GUSTS
   CAPABLE OF SPORADIC DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39678729 40238666 40458417 40478301 40038280 39508302
               39258467 39118684 39678729 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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