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Mesoscale Discussion 1596
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212212Z - 220015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE FURTHER FROM NRN IL INTO
   INDIANA THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN SIZE SOUTH
   OF THE CHICAGO AREA...WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
   AND ECHO TOPS. THESE STORMS ARE NEAR THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT...AND APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
   ALOFT WITH VEERING WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

   AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS TO FUEL THESE CELLS...WITH
   30-40 KT MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK SELY SURFACE WINDS
   HELPING TO ELONGATE HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT TRENDS
   SUGGEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY
   STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A COLD POOL FORMS. HOWEVER...HAIL MAY
   OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES GIVEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR PERHAPS
   SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE CLUSTER.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40558823 40838846 41248845 41438821 41528731 41728679
               41458573 40998522 40118485 39728486 39378530 39358597
               39578693 40208773 40558823 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2014
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