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Mesoscale Discussion 1596
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND FAR
   SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031644Z - 031845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE
   A THREAT FOR A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
   HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BROWN COUNTY KS EWD TO DAVIESS COUNTY MO
   LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
   FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW
   ALOFT...AND AN ATTENDANT MASS RESPONSE/WEAK WAA ATOP A
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z TOP RAOB EXHIBITS
   RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
   VERTICAL ACCELERATION. ADDITIONALLY...UPWARDS OF 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...WHICH
   WOULD BOLSTER HAIL GROWTH AS WELL. THUS...A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL
   REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
   THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
   SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39849297 39369288 38789308 38409403 38779582 39569743
               40389760 41109742 41169557 40899388 40829382 40179322
               39849297 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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