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Mesoscale Discussion 1597
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN KS INTO SRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 212243Z - 220045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH EVENING BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TCU AND
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM CNTRL INTO NRN KS WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
   CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED
   CIN...AND A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET BODES WELL FOR CONTINUED
   DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS CIN WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE DUE TO A
   RATHER DEEPLY-MIXED AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

   THIS ACTIVITY IS BENEATH MODEST WESTERLIES ALOFT...WITH CELLS
   GENERALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WITH A NEWD COMPONENT. LOCALIZED
   SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE PERHAPS TOO
   SPARSE FOR A WATCH.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39109991 40169937 40799809 40939689 40659650 40229662
               39299807 38609952 38639982 38749990 39109991 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2014
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