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Mesoscale Discussion 1599
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NERN NEB...NWRN KS...AND SWRN THRU CNTRL
   NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221945Z - 222145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...A STALLING
   OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EAST
   CENTRAL COLORADO COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.

   EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT...BENEATH MODERATE SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ARE CONTRIBUTING
   TO 40-50+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
   INSOLATION CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...AND AT LEAST
   SOME HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN
   SUGGESTIVE THAT THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
   COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS 22-00Z.

   THE INITIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY EAST OF THE
   PALMER DIVIDE.  THE INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE UNDERWAY DOWNSTREAM...NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
   POCKET OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
   CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 08/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39790387 40710226 40800211 41610029 42129948 42179817
               40939755 40289935 40199990 39340182 38250355 38920397
               39790387 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2014
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