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Mesoscale Discussion 1599
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...AND THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032208Z - 032345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN
   NM AND SERN CO MAY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
   THEY MOVE SEWD. DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR
   HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND SERN CO. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN
   RESPONSE TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
   NRN UT SEWD TO SERN CO AND MODEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
   AND ADJACENT AREAS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MID 60S SFC
   DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP
   MESOANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS
   NOT OVERLY STRONG...WITH THE VWP PROFILE FROM KAMA SHOWING VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH 3 KM...AND RAP FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOWING 30 KT OR LESS BELOW 300 MB.
   THESE MODEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY TEND TO LIMIT SUPERCELL STORM
   STRUCTURES...WITH MULTICELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   WIND DAMAGE MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO AND
   THE FAR NW OK PANHANDLE WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A SMALL MCS THROUGH
   THE EVENING AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. IF THIS
   SCENARIO WERE TO BECOME APPARENT...THEN WW ISSUANCE WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35950376 37000307 37420247 37390171 36780047 35490061
               35200168 35230266 35490378 35950376 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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