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Mesoscale Discussion 1600
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...ADJACENT SERN INDIANA...AND NERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...

   VALID 032243Z - 040015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
   WHILE TENDING TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE CINCINNATI
   METROPOLITAN AREA.  PORTIONS OF WW 467 COULD BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN
   TIME/AREA...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL EVOLVING SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CINCINNATI METROPOLITAN
   AREA.  THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   CHARACTERIZED BY A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
   LIGHT.  HOWEVER...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...FROM WEST SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR
   GROUND LEVEL...IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE CONVECTION BENEATH 40+ KT ...BROADLY
   CYCLONIC...WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.

   FORCING ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION BENEATH A
   POSSIBLE ENHANCED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
   THE SUSTENANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY.  BUT THIS FORCING IS SUBTLE...AND
   WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STABILIZATION THROUGH
   THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   INTENSITY APPEARS UNLIKELY.  IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
   LONGER ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WITH AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TEND TO PROPAGATE EAST
   SOUTHEAST OF CINCINNATI...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...DURING THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..KERR.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   39468497 39748418 38968288 38438284 38138434 38758501
               38998517 39468497 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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