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Mesoscale Discussion 1600
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MD 1600 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN WV...WRN VA...WRN-CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222050Z - 222215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN KY SEWD ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN AND CNTRL NC.
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT
   BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD
   ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
   THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. SFC TEMPS ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIAN MTNS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S F WHICH HAS
   ALLOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   REGION. THE STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE NC
   NEWD TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO
   2000 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN NC...MESOSCALE
   ANALYSIS IS SHOWING 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM. AS THE
   CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER ERN KY AND WRN VA MOVES SEWD INTO THE
   STRONGER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 08/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   34817959 36017830 36817834 37767997 38558173 38358301
               37008351 35778243 34817959 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2014
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