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Mesoscale Discussion 1601
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466...

   VALID 032323Z - 040100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUST POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
   GENERALLY DIMINISH WITH STORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH
   00-02Z. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MEAN LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING ACROSS THE
   REGION...IN THE WAKE OF THE PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW
   PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC...AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WEST OF JAMES BAY.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL FOR
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE ONGOING NARROW LINE OF STORMS NOW
   SLOWLY SPREADING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINE AND NEW
   HAMPSHIRE.  

   BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY SUPPORTING UPDRAFTS APPEARS FAIRLY
   MODEST...WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN
   TO WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. 
   OVERALL...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
   CONDUCIVE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIVE ENHANCEMENT
   OF SURFACE GUST POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNWARD MIXING OF 25-35
   KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE
   TURBULENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY BE STILL BE ENOUGH TO
   RESULT IN SPORADIC DAMAGE OF /AND RELATING TO/ TREES AND POWER
   LINES...UNTIL STORMS WEAKEN.

   ..KERR.. 08/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   46526774 45056900 44367011 43577078 44387047 44886986
               45806893 46406799 46886787 46526774 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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