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Mesoscale Discussion 1603
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE NORTHERN VA...MD...NORTHERN
   DE...SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PA...NJ...SOUTHEAST NY INCLUDING MUCH OF
   LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040729Z - 041030Z

   CORRECTED TYPO IN GRAPHIC LABEL.

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
   PART OF SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT TO
   EARLY MORNING.  THE MAJOR METRO AREAS INCLUDING NEW YORK
   CITY/PHILADELPHIA/BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC CAN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
   MOVE THROUGH 08-10Z.  MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   SUB-SEVERE...THOUGH THE EPISODIC STRONGER CORES WILL HAVE SOME
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 50
   KT...WHILE HAIL WILL BE AN ISOLATED...SECONDARY THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0715Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST NJ...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
   PA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/WRN MD PANHANDLE WITH STORM
   MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 40 KT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND
   MODIFIED LWX 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION HAS
   BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SUGGESTING THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED. 
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
   THE BASE OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE
   TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
   INTO EARLY MORNING.  THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED
   STRENGTHENING OF WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES UP TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES/ AND 850-500-MB LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM SUGGEST SOME STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED. 
   ALTHOUGH HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED
   STORMS...DRY...SUB-CLOUD AIR OBSERVED IN AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS COULD
   ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH OR LOCALLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS.  THIS
   POTENTIAL IS SIMILAR TO THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH HGR PRODUCING A
   48-KT GUST AT 0630Z.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40727520 41397376 41517257 40587306 39577457 39137610
               38787789 38837896 39187865 40127698 40737551 40727520 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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