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Mesoscale Discussion 1603
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...NEBRASKA
   PANHANDLE...AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231907Z - 232100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
   APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
   AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THREATS
   APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
   WYOMING BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A SURFACE MOIST AXIS. DESPITE SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AT OR BELOW 6
   C/KM/ HAVE RESULTED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES ONLY
   BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

   FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ATTEMPTS AT
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH-CENTRAL
   COLORADO/SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
   LOWER HERE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN FARTHER
   NORTH...AROUND 7 C/KM....WHICH HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES
   BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES /CURRENTLY AROUND 35
   KTS/ COULD FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KTS BY LATE-AFTERNOON AS A
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER WESTERN COLORADO APPROACHES. HERE...GIVEN
   MODEST MLCAPE VALUES AND THE EXPECTED STRONGER SURFACE
   HEATING/DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING THAN FARTHER NORTH...ANY
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG GUSTY WIND THREAT.

   AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR AND COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED AREAS OF
   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS APPEARS TOO LOW TO
   WARRANT A WATCH.

   ..MARSH/MEAD.. 08/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43940521 44530489 44260347 43230244 41680271 39760305
               39260413 39630547 40540560 41410512 42560475 43940521 

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Page last modified: August 23, 2014
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