Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1604 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ADJACENT SRN
    NORTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232049Z - 232245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
   EXPECTED INTO THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME.  THE EXTENT OF THE RISK REMAINS
   UNCLEAR...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A WATCH COULD
   EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS
   EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
   PIERRE...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER ALONG A
   STALLED WEAK FRONTAL ZONE.  TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
   SURFACE LOW...A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...AND AN EFFECTIVE WARM
   FRONT...IN AN ARCING ZONE FROM NEAR/NORTH OF PIERRE INTO AREAS NORTH
   OF HURON AND SIOUX FALLS.  MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR PIERRE APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO
   SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND SIMILAR
   STRENGTHENING APPEARS POSSIBLE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO
   PARTS OF NORTH EAST/EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   AS WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION PROCEEDS ALONG THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT
   APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 08/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45450054 46170025 46109738 45689660 44759673 44269762
               44479855 43739972 44040006 44870014 45450054 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 23, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities