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Mesoscale Discussion 1605
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CNTRL KY THROUGH MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232214Z - 240015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUST NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN AN
   OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TOWARD MID-EVENING. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF STORM CLUSTERS PERSIST
   OVER CNTRL IND AS WELL AS MIDDLE TN MOVING SWD AT 30-35 KT. THE
   STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK /15-25 KT/ NWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS
   WHICH /IN ADDITION TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT/ WILL LIKELY
   MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS
   MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND
   STORMS WILL TRACK SWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH SRN
   IND...CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE WEAK...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND
   THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW INSTANCES OF WET
   DOWNBURSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP SWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING
   TREND TOWARD MID-EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 08/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   39898600 38308472 37098458 36108503 35258594 35068703
               35398820 37538671 38838704 39898600 

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Page last modified: August 24, 2014
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