Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1605 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY INTO VT/NH/MAINE/MA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 041515Z - 041745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO VT/NH/WESTERN MAINE...WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS ALSO BECOMING MORE PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
   STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY FOR AT
   LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND/ BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH INCIPIENT
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST NY INTO VT/NH
   LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /AROUND -15C AT 500 MB/...MODEST MOISTURE/HEATING ARE
   LEADING TO INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE CINH IN THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500
   J/KG MLCAPE AS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN NY INTO
   SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCORDINGLY...RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT VIA
   STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
   NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   44867323 45107137 46076955 44596805 42947061 42417264
               41657365 41947418 43037381 44117377 44867323 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 04, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities