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Mesoscale Discussion 1606
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041658Z - 041900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.
   STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
   INCREASES LATER TODAY. THUS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
   FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM A BROAD/DISORGANIZED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   STRETCHING FROM WY SEWD TO S-CNTRL NEB. CONVERGENCE ALONG A
   SWWD-PROGRESSING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT AS WELL AS
   WEAK WAA ATOP THIS BOUNDARY /EVIDENCED BY VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
   KGLD VWP/ ARE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION.

   THE 12Z LBF RAOB DEPICTED RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN ANY
   ELEVATED STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...WITH FURTHER HEATING AND MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
   OF CURRENT CONVECTION...PARCELS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED
   THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST STRENGTHENING OF W/NWLY 500-MB FLOW SHOULD
   YIELD SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT SUCH THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON
   THE ORDER OF 35 KTS IS REALIZED. IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND
   1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL
   OFFER SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST
   CELLS. ADDITIONALLY...CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   SUGGEST A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40770273 41520275 41730114 40879975 39609864 38839862
               38029895 37850011 37970053 38920166 39900233 40770273 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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