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Mesoscale Discussion 1608
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241910Z - 242045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS
   APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
   DURING THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
   NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 
   THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH
   AND EAST OF THE BRAINERD AND ST. CLOUD AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH A POCKET OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...CAPE FOR MOIST BOUNDARY PARCELS /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
   AROUND 70F/ APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS
   WESTERN ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE
   HEATING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
   MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE TO ERODE LINGERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  AND THE
   LATEST RAPID REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT ARE
   INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION
   OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS THE
   20-22Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

   AS INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC...SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
   STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KTS...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE
   THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL TEND TO DEVELOP
   NORTHEAST/EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS SOMEWHAT MODEST IN STRENGTH /25-35
   KT/...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND VEER WITH TIME...A
   BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COOLER...BUT
   MODIFYING...AIR /INFLUENCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   RISK FOR TORNADOES AS STORMS CROSS IT.  THIS THREAT SEEMS MOST
   LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE BRAINERD AND ST.
   CLOUD AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 08/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47969643 48779582 48479379 46769313 45449277 44489356
               44509435 44869537 45849594 47969643 

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Page last modified: August 24, 2014
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