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Mesoscale Discussion 1608
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DE/MA/VA AND SOUTHERN NJ/DC METRO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041948Z - 042245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VA AND DC METRO
   VICINITY TO DE/EASTERN MD AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NJ. SEVERE WIND/HAIL
   WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
   RELATIVELY SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WIDELY
   SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT...PRESUMABLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO RELATIVELY WEAK
   CONVERGENCE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR VIA A PREVALENT WESTERLY
   NEAR-SURFACE WIND COMPONENT. THAT SAID...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
   SOMEWHAT INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN VA IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE BLUE
   RIDGE AS STRONG HEATING CONTINUES. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
   ESSENTIALLY NIL WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
   1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS
   BEEN TOO FAST/AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS
   FAR...IT IS STILL PLAUSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY THAT AT LEAST WIDELY
   SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS WILL DEVELOP/MATURE AND SPREAD EASTWARD
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VA AND
   DC METRO VICINITY OF EASTERN MD/DE AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NJ. WITH
   40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED
   STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. WHILE A WATCH ISSUANCE DOES NOT
   APPEAR IMMINENT AS OF 345PM EDT...LATE-AFTERNOON TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39717575 39307454 38247482 37197617 37117835 38857792
               39717575 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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