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Mesoscale Discussion 1610
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE/CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS...WRN OK...FAR SE TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242351Z - 250145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FROM NE KS SEWD INTO THE FAR SE TX
   PANHANDLE. LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NE KS
   SWWD INTO S-CNTRL KS AND THEN WWD ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE.
   ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO
   THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS AREA
   CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WEAK
   BULK SHEAR PREVENTS MUCH UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE...STORM
   MOTION IS TAKING STORMS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE FACTORS
   WILL CONTINUE LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE THROUGHOUT
   THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY STAY IN THE WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT LONG ENOUGH TO REACH SVR STRENGTH. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37239699 35049873 33820045 34080091 36369990 39689692
               39579544 37239699 

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Page last modified: August 25, 2014
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