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Mesoscale Discussion 1610
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN NEB...WRN/NRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...

   VALID 042029Z - 042230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   ACROSS WW 470 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERSISTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SEVERE
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE WATCH...BUT THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN
   NEB/NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CELLS ACROSS NWRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
   PROGRESS SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT MODULATED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AS WELL AS
   OUTFLOW COLLISIONS/MERGERS. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS SHOULD SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION OF THE
   STRONGEST CELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
   PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MANIFEST ITSELF IN
   RELATIVELY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT SUPERCELLS...STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS
   MAY STILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT/WEAK WAA IS FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION EAST OF
   THE CURRENT WATCH. WHILE SOME MARGINAL HAIL/WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
   HERE /INCLUDING THE FAIRLY ROBUST-APPEARING BOWING SEGMENT OVER
   FRONTIER AND GOSPER COUNTIES IN NEB/...CLOUD DEBRIS/LACK OF GREATER
   DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40589907 39649731 39259693 38429784 38239998 38720158
               39400208 40330217 40930051 40589907 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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