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Mesoscale Discussion 1611
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0934 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475...

   VALID 250234Z - 250330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 475 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.  NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE MOSTLY
   WEAKENED WITH MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF WW.  THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS WITHIN A
   WARM ADVECTION ZONE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRONG STORMS.
   HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF
   MN AND NRN WI WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LATEST WDSSII HAIL ALGORITHM ALSO SUGGESTS HAIL
   IS MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE AND DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR
   PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.  FOR THESE REASONS A NEW
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS NWRN WI/ARROWHEAD
   OF MN.

   ..DARROW.. 08/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   44589443 48509560 48509299 44589199 44589443 

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