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Mesoscale Discussion 1611
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 042209Z - 042315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS W-CNTRL KS IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE SEWD INTO SW/S-CNTRL KS WITH SOME SEVERE TSTMS PROBABLE.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CONTINUED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COOL POOL SURGING SWD ACROSS W-CNTRL KS.
   ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   APPROACHING 1500 J PER KG PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS. SHEAR ACROSS
   THE AREA IS DECENT WITH GLD VAD REPORTING 52 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
   SHEAR AND MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED SOON TO COVER THIS ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37610126 38050090 38499949 38979848 39009800 38779789
               38169799 37439873 37239914 37010030 37100117 37610126 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2015
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