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Mesoscale Discussion 1612
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 250441Z - 250615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NRN IA INTO SERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES
   ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN-NCNTRL IA WHERE 3000+ J/KG MUCAPE CURRENTLY
   RESIDES.  WHILE SFC BASED PARCELS MAY NOT BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARCELS WITHIN 1KM OF SFC ARE LIKELY
   FEEDING UPDRAFTS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR DNS...NEWD TO SOUTH
   OF RST IN SERN MN.  LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACCOMPANIES THE STRONGEST
   UPDRAFTS...PER WDSSII...OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY IA AND SUFFICIENT SWLY
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS PRESENT FOR THIS DEVELOPING LINE TO REMAIN
   ORGANIZED AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.  AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT AN OTHERWISE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE BAND MAY ULTIMATELY PROGRESS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NRN
   IA TOWARD SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42469502 43959216 43419111 41799405 42469502 

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Page last modified: August 25, 2014
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