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Mesoscale Discussion 1612
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SERN VERMONT...SRN NEW
   HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SRN MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469...

   VALID 042249Z - 050015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS /THROUGH AROUND
   00-01Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   469 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME...FOR AN HOUR OR SO...ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
   HAMPSHIRE...BUT THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...TO THE NORTH OF A STALLING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
   SURFACE BOUNDARY CURVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
   CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND/CONNECTICUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
   RELATIVELY MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
   COULD STILL BE AUGMENTED THROUGH 00-01Z BY A LINGERING AREA OF
   MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT IS SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD
   FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE
   THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE CYCLONIC
   MID/UPPER JET AXIS...CURVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
   THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH SUSTAINED STORMS.

   OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAVE
   STABILIZED MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED.

   ..KERR.. 08/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43567204 43827085 43447021 41837029 41767090 41457283
               41857322 42307326 43057280 43567204 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2015
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