MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR SE WY...WRN NEB...FAR NW KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 180812Z - 180945Z
   
   A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK EXPANDING
   SWD ACROSS ERN CO. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
   WARRANT A WW.
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WY...NEB AND CO
   STATE-LINE INTERSECTION LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EVIDENCE OF THE IMPULSE CAN BE SEEN BOTH IN
   THE RUC VORTICITY FIELD AND AT 700 MB WHERE A JET FEATURE IS
   ANALYZED OVER WRN NEB. IN ADDITION...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
   EARLY THIS MORNING HELPING THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SUSTAINED AND EXPAND
   SWD ACROSS ERN CO. THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE STORMS ARE
   LOCATED ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION IN A STRONGLY SHEARED BUT WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   FROM 700 TO 500 MB EVIDENT ON THE SYDNEY NEB NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDING
   SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   38730205 38630291 38910374 39900398 40970434 41480457
               41780435 41880358 41050230 40560189 39970181 39150178
               38730205