MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E CNTRL NM...SERN CO...AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 181914Z - 182115Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SERN CO...NERN NM INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE BY 21Z AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN OK NWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE
   INTO SERN CO AND CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY ELEVATED STORMS
   DEVELOPING ON ITS COOL SIDE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ABOVE
   THE THETA-E RIDGE WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM INTO SERN CO
   THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND NERN NM. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND
   INTENSIFY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BELT OF 25-35 KT
   NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN
   35-40 KT BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
   RAPIDLY SWD INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   38020316 35240076 34149983 33140021 33160348 34710457
               36500515 37890496 38020316