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Mesoscale Discussion 1613
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0830 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...471...

   VALID 050130Z - 050300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   470...471...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW 470 AND 471
   FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEADS
   TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN STORM INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS...ONE
   ENTERING FORD COUNTY AND THE OTHER ENTERING RUSH COUNTY. MESH DATA
   HAS INDICATED SEVERE HAIL WITH BOTH OF THESE STORMS FOR QUITE SOME
   TIME WITH RECENT DATA SUGGESTING HAIL OVER 3 INCHES IN THE FORD
   COUNTY STORM. THE RUSH COUNTY STORM MAY BE WANING A BIT WITH 9 KM
   CAPPI...VIL...AND MESH ALL SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND. HOWEVER...THE
   UPDRAFT STILL APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH A
   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
   FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. THE FORD COUNTY STORM HAS AN
   IMPRESSIVE RADAR APPEARANCE AND IT IS ALSO KEEPING UP WITH IT/S
   OUTFLOW...SUGGESTING A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.
   ADDITIONALLY...VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON DDC VAD INDICATES A NON-ZERO
   TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS THE
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD DECREASES AND THE LCL LOWERS. 

   EVEN WITH THESE ONGOING SVR STORMS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE 00Z DDC AND AMA
   SOUNDINGS WERE 6.9 AND 7.3 DEG C PER KM...RESPECTIVELY...WHICH DOES
   NOT SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LONG AFTER BECOMING ELEVATED.
   HOWEVER...THE ESRL HRRR SUGGESTS THE FORD COUNTY STORM WILL CONTINUE
   INTO NW OK.

   ..MOSIER.. 08/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37020040 39050122 39059899 37029823 37020040 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2015
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