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Mesoscale Discussion 1614
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251810Z - 252015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND
   POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
   POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME RECENT SIGNS OF
   INTENSIFICATION IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS
   FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND THE CHICAGOLAND VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE
   FOCUSED ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING OUTFLOW...AS IT INTERCEPTS A
   VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/INDIANA INTO
   SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. IN THIS CORRIDOR...70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
   AMPLE INSOLATION ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 3500-4000
   J/KG OF MLCAPE. LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE WEAK ASIDE FROM THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED
   /20-25 KT 0-6 KM CHICAGO WSR-88D VWP/. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT/MERGERS MAY LEAD TO GRADUAL
   UPSCALE GROWTH/ORGANIZATION...WITH SOME DEGREE OF FORWARD
   ACCELERATION/PROPAGATION AS A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE.
   THIS IS A SCENARIO WELL-SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z
   WRF-NSSL. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
   MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH AT
   LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41458861 42148714 42388540 41028504 40448556 40308696
               40348834 41098918 41458861 

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Page last modified: August 25, 2014
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