MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PNHDL...ERN NM...SE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...
   
   VALID 182320Z - 190045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MID-LEVEL WAVE IS IN THE
   PROCESS OF DIGGING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE.  SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE MAY BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...AND THIS MAY REMAIN THE CASE
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
   
   MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS ARE
   ONGOING...PARTICULARLY NEAR/SOUTH OR DALHART.  FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH COUPLED MID/UPPER SPEED MAXIMA MAY BE ENHANCING THIS
   ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS WILL REMAIN THE
   CASE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 30-40 KT NORTHERLY 500 MB
   WINDS...STORM-SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SEVERE
   STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000+ J/KG.  
   
   LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS
   AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOLS. WITH AT
   LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY NEAR THE
   TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS BY 02-03Z...FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG/ABOVE CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT AN
   EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER.  AND THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
   INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
   CLOVIS...GENERALLY WEST OF PLAINVIEW AND LUBBOCK.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   33390372 34140380 34650382 35320364 35580305 35500240
               34920199 33850200 33300229 33110281 33080334 33390372