Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1614
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1614 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR
   NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 050800Z - 051030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING FROM
   NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD TO THE
   SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTH-
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  POTENTIAL EXISTS
   FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT ATTAIN
   ORGANIZATION...AND CAPABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AROUND OR
   GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.  A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE FOR
   LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BEING GREATER DUE
   TO COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND
   IF THERE IS A GREATER INCREASE IN STRONGER STORM COVERAGE...THEN A
   WW WOULD BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...SINCE 06Z...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
   INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOMEWHAT WITH
   INDIVIDUAL STORM INTENSITIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS.  THE NW-SE
   ORIENTATION OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS
   CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRENGTHENING NW-SE 850-MB THERMAL
   GRADIENT...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CAP
   PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  RECENT TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWED A SPATIAL EXPANSION OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS CLUSTER
   OF STORMS...WHILE THE GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT IS CONFIRMING
   THE PERSISTENT INCREASE IN STRONGER STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS. 
   IN ADDITION...THE GOES-R CLOUD-TOP COOLING PRODUCT INDICATED RECENT
   INCREASES IN COOLING WITH STORMS IN VICINITY OF RICE AND ELLIS
   COUNTIES KS.  

   THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE TRACK OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CENTRAL
   NEB MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
   INCREASE IN WAA WITHIN THE TERMINUS OF A STRENGTHENING/VEERING SWLY
   LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KS TO NORTHEAST OK FROM APPROXIMATELY
   09-12Z.  THE SWLY LLJ COUPLED WITH 40-KT NWLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE
   NEB TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WHILE
   STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO KS. 
   THIS COMBINED WITH THE SWLY LLJ PROVIDING A FEED OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   CENTRAL OK/KS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO
   THE EARLY MORNING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39759851 39199735 38339612 37899542 37409500 37059496
               36799523 36719586 36719669 36929742 37389796 38739900
               39489923 39759851 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 05, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities