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Mesoscale Discussion 1615
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS/NORTH-CENTRAL AND
   NORTHEAST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...

   VALID 051140Z - 051315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 50
   KT...CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS
   THROUGH 12Z...AND THEN INTO THE OK COUNTIES IN WW 472 BY 13Z. 
   MEANWHILE...TRAINING STRONG STORMS...CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE
   SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES IN WW 472...COULD
   PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.  THE COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE TRAINING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
   IN THIS WATCH AS COMPARED TO COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF WW
   472.

   DISCUSSION...A RECENT TRACK OF THE LEADING BOW STRUCTURE OF STORMS
   /EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD AND ELK COUNTIES KS THROUGH BUTLER AND
   SEDGWICK COUNTIES KS/ INDICATED A SLOWING TREND IN THE FORWARD SPEED
   AT AROUND 35 KT...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
   THIS BOW HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE STABILITY
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND LIMITING THE DOWNWARD
   TRANSFER OF STRONGER WIND SPEED.  MEANWHILE...MRMS CAPPI DATA UP
   THROUGH 7 KM INDICATED THE TRAILING STORMS FROM NORTHEAST BARTON AND
   ELLSWORTH COUNTIES KS TO SEDGWICK/BUTLER COUNTIES WERE TENDING TO
   REMAIN STRONG...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THE LATTER THREAT MAY BE
   INHIBITED...AS WELL...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STABILITY OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE
   SOUTHEAST...GIVEN THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
   CENTRAL KS.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA...RESIDUAL
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-45 KT WILL
   SUPPORT THE ONGOING AND NEW STORMS.  STORMS ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST KS TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HAIL THE
   PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE LATTER STORMS.

   ..PETERS.. 08/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36179621 36819741 37529843 38399897 38809894 38949773
               38539726 38269679 38579641 38599598 38299522 37929411
               36489398 36509516 36389587 36179621 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2015
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