MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0905 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE NW AND SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...602...
   
   VALID 190205Z - 190300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   601...602...CONTINUES.
   
   A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOUTH OF CURRENT WWS BY 03Z.
   
   A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
   INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...NOW CENTERED AROUND/JUST SOUTH OF
   CLOVIS...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.  AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS UP TO 30 KTS IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
   ...A SOUTHWARD ACCELERATION OF ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...PERHAPS ACROSS THE CARLSBAD/WINK AND THE
   MIDLAND-ODESSA AREAS INTO THE PECOS VALLEY BY 05-07Z.  DESPITE THE
   ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...WARM/UNSATURATED SUB CLOUD LAYERS
   PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TO THE RISK FOR DOWNBURSTS AND
   SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOLS ACCOMPANIED BY
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/19/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   33370405 33800359 33870281 33620192 32000157 31420188
               31200246 31500345 32190401 33370405