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Mesoscale Discussion 1615
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252037Z - 252230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
   THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO THIS
   AFTERNOON.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   INTO WESTERN CO.  WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS TRACKING
   ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE FORMING.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL
   MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NORTHEAST CO REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED...BUT
   SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
   DUE TO CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
   HELPING TO REINFORCE LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
   WITH ENHANCING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
   THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR POSSIBLE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..HART/MEAD.. 08/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39390575 40390579 40920495 40970316 40290283 38650329
               38630539 39390575 

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Page last modified: August 25, 2014
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