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Mesoscale Discussion 1616
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SWRN WY...FAR NWRN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252229Z - 260030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN UT...SWRN WY...AND FAR NWRN CO. SOME SEVERE
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS
   THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL
   INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. TSTM COVERAGE WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE
   SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J
   PER KG/ AND MODERATE SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT/. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED STAY
   BELOW SVR THRESHOLDS AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   41011175 42191088 42370948 41400825 38250910 38231256
               41011175 

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Page last modified: August 26, 2014
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