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Mesoscale Discussion 1616
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0808 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST
   MO...NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...

   VALID 051308Z - 051445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD REMAIN
   LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   MCS...AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
   OK...FAR SOUTHWEST MO...AND POTENTIALLY INTO NORTHWEST AR.  OVERALL
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH MID TO LATE
   MORNING...WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION.

   DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITH
   THE ESEWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS...WHILE THE ATTENDANT
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS DISPLACE 12-25 MILES SOUTH THROUGH
   SOUTHWEST OF THE RELATIVELY STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
   SOUTHEAST KS.  THE VEERED LLJ WITH A MORE WLY COMPONENT SUGGESTS THE
   STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOCATED ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS
   MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK.  THE
   COMBINATION OF OVERALL WARMING CLOUD TOPS...DIMINISHING TRENDS IN
   7-KM AND 9-KM CAPPI...AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE WLY LLJ THIS
   MORNING SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
   THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.

   MEANWHILE...SURFACE HEATING OF A DOWNSTREAM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS
   EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL NEW
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE LEADING EXTENT OF
   THE MCS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCE INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK
   AND NORTHWEST AR.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AT THAT TIME.

   ..PETERS.. 08/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38129774 37789650 37919538 37739421 37329348 36499298
               35519328 35239468 35449652 35949743 37129821 37729813
               38129774 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2015
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