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Mesoscale Discussion 1617
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051614Z - 051845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINE.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON THE
   SOUTHEAST-PERIPHERY OF THE PROMINENT CLOSED TROUGH CENTERED OVER
   NORTHERN QUEBEC...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR/COASTAL MAINE THROUGH
   EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. AS SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S F...CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION IS ALREADY VIRTUALLY NIL...AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15 TO -17C
   AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE.
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG /30-35 KT/ LARGELY OWING TO THE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PROFILES...BUT SUFFICIENT
   BUOYANCY/COOL THERMAL PROFILES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER
   MULTICELL STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 08/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   44507029 46476832 45736753 44826722 43876949 44507029 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2015
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